MLB · graded history
Verified Pick Record
Every graded pick at the line we posted, flat 1u, running total. Nothing gets deleted.
MLB full card · Since 2026-09-16
Flat 1u, every pick
25 graded picks; flat 1u per play
Second half sample, still growing. We show every graded pick, including labeled outage backfills. Live plays update when games go final.
Last graded: Sep 23, 2026 4:46 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Free Pick of the Day · Since 2026-09-16
Just the free pick
6 graded picks; flat 1u per play
The one public pick per day, graded at the line we posted. The full card above includes the sides held back until graded.
Last graded: Sep 23, 2026 4:46 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Since the rules changed · Jul 26, 2026
Card capped at 10% edge, free pick by win probability
25 graded picks; flat 1u per play
On our own graded history the model's biggest edges were its worst plays, so plays above 10% edge no longer make the card and the free pick is now the highest model win probability in the band. Everything from before the change stays on the record above — nothing was removed.
Last graded: Sep 23, 2026 4:46 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Hot runs & streaks
Built from every graded full card pick (up to 5 a day). Updates when games go final. Public Pick of the Day streaks are separate.
Best days (4+ wins on card)
- Aug 11
- Aug 9
- Jul 24
- Jul 22
- May 20
Best 7-day windows
- May 15 to May 21
- May 14 to May 20
- May 16 to May 22
| Date | Team | Opponent | Result | Units | Running total units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | L | -1.00u | +2.92u |
| 2026-09-22 | Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.85u | +3.92u |
| 2026-09-22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres | W | +0.83u | +3.07u |
| 2026-09-21 | Detroit Tigers | Washington Nationals | W | +0.66u | +2.24u |
| 2026-09-21 | Minnesota Twins | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | +1.58u |
| 2026-09-21 | Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +0.89u | +2.58u |
| 2026-09-20 | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.65u | +1.69u |
| 2026-09-20 | New York Yankees | Arizona Diamondbacks | L | -1.00u | +1.04u |
| 2026-09-20 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Kansas City Royals | W | +1.02u | +2.04u |
| 2026-09-19 | Milwaukee Brewers | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.76u | +1.02u |
| 2026-09-19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.89u | +0.26u |
| 2026-09-19 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -0.63u |
| 2026-09-19 | Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | W | +1.00u | +0.37u |
| 2026-09-19 | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.72u | -0.63u |
| 2026-09-18 | Milwaukee Brewers | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.72u | -1.36u |
| 2026-09-18 | Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | W | +0.86u | -2.08u |
| 2026-09-18 | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.16u | -2.94u |
| 2026-09-18 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -4.10u |
| 2026-09-18 | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -3.10u |
| 2026-09-17 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | W | +1.16u | -2.10u |
| 2026-09-16 | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -3.26u |
| 2026-09-16 | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +0.74u | -2.26u |
| 2026-09-16 | Detroit Tigers | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | -3.00u |
| 2026-09-16 | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | L | -1.00u | -2.00u |
| 2026-09-16 | Boston Red Sox | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -1.00u |