Daily Picks Free

Today · 2026-09-23

Check back once lines are up

The free pick posts after morning prices are up. We only post when there is a real edge, not just because games are on.

NFL · REG Week 2

Week 2 Pick of the Week graded W: Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals · -205 posted · final +0.49u. Next week’s card posts Wednesday morning.

CS2 · Last card: 2026-09-22

Today’s CS2 card hasn’t posted yet.

The CS2 card publishes around 5:30 AM ET. The last one up was 2026-09-22.

Today's MLB slate

MatchupScoreStatus
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers   1:10 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles   1:35 PM ET
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants   3:45 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles   6:35 PM ET
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates   6:40 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies   6:40 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees   7:05 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox   7:10 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves   7:15 PM ET
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals   7:40 PM ET
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs   7:40 PM ET
New York Mets @ Texas Rangers   8:05 PM ET
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies   8:40 PM ET
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics   9:40 PM ET
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers   10:10 PM ET
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners   10:10 PM ET
Public pickWaiting · Card posts after morning prices are up Best edgen/a · Nothing on today's card yet POD record64-67 · 131 graded public picks Net units-9.25u · flat 1u each play | ROI -7.1%

How we’ve been doing

Free Pick of the Day · All time

Just the free pick

131 graded picks; flat 1u per play

POD W-L 64-67
Win rate 48.9%
Units -9.25u (131 picks)
Streak W3
ROI -7.1%

The one public pick per day, graded at the line we posted. Every graded pick ever is on the record page.

Last graded: Sep 23, 2026 3:07 AM ET

Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.

See full graded history →

Full model card · All time

Every play on the card

653 graded picks; flat 1u per play

Card W-L 322-331
Win rate 49.3%
Units -23.06u (653 picks)
Streak L1
ROI -3.5%

The whole card, including the sides held back from the free pick. Pro opens these the day they post; here they are graded after the fact.

Last graded: Sep 23, 2026 3:07 AM ET

The free pick is one play a day. Pro opens the full card the day it posts: every side, line, edge, and write-up, graded the same way.

Pick history

Most recent 60 of 131 · full ledger

Date Play Pick Matchup Score Line Units Result
2026-09-22 PICK OF THE DAY Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers 0-7 -120 +0.83u W
2026-09-20 PICK OF THE DAY Pittsburgh Pirates Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates 3-4 +102 +1.02u W
2026-09-19 PICK OF THE DAY Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds 5-2 -138 +0.72u W
2026-09-18 PICK OF THE DAY Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds 4-6 -126 -1.00u L
2026-09-17 PICK OF THE DAY Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets 3-0 +116 +1.16u W
2026-09-16 PICK OF THE DAY Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers 3-7 -108 -1.00u L
2026-09-13 PICK OF THE DAY Detroit Tigers Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers 1-8 -154 +0.65u W
2026-09-11 PICK OF THE DAY New York Yankees New York Mets @ New York Yankees 4-6 -138 +0.72u W
2026-09-09 PICK OF THE DAY Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals 2-5 -112 -1.00u L
2026-09-08 PICK OF THE DAY Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox 6-1 -144 -1.00u L
2026-09-07 PICK OF THE DAY Los Angeles Dodgers Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers 3-6 -158 +0.63u W
2026-09-06 PICK OF THE DAY Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers 6-8 -104 -1.00u L

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How this works

Same process every day. Run the slate, post the best look that clears our bar. No gut calls, no chasing yesterday, no quiet edits later.

The pick

We grade teams on season form: wins, runs scored, runs allowed, pitching, plus a small home bump (why). Early year samples swing around. More on that here.

Strong / Moderate / Slight

How wide the gap looks. Strong stands out. Slight is closer, so don't get carried away. A lean, not a promise.

Line & edge

The line is the moneyline when we posted. The edge is our fair price vs the board (plain English). A +4% edge means the book is a bit soft on that side. Shop the number before you bet. No line means we did not have one at run time.

The record

Everything grades straight W/L on the team we posted. Cold streaks happen. Variance is normal. Units means your normal bet size, flat 1u every play (why). Nothing gets deleted. CLV is another way to read results besides W/L.

More reads: win probability · why we skip parlays · run differential · all posts.

Bet responsibly. For informational use only. Past results don't guarantee future performance.