MLB · graded history
Verified Pick Record
Every graded pick at the line we posted, flat 1u, running total. Nothing gets deleted.
MLB full card · Since 2026-08-24
Flat 1u, every pick
99 graded picks; flat 1u per play
Second half sample, still growing. We show every graded pick, including labeled outage backfills. Live plays update when games go final.
Last graded: Sep 23, 2026 4:45 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Free Pick of the Day · Since 2026-08-24
Just the free pick
21 graded picks; flat 1u per play
The one public pick per day, graded at the line we posted. The full card above includes the sides held back until graded.
Last graded: Sep 23, 2026 4:45 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Since the rules changed · Jul 26, 2026
Card capped at 10% edge, free pick by win probability
99 graded picks; flat 1u per play
On our own graded history the model's biggest edges were its worst plays, so plays above 10% edge no longer make the card and the free pick is now the highest model win probability in the band. Everything from before the change stays on the record above — nothing was removed.
Last graded: Sep 23, 2026 4:45 AM ET
Rules since Jul 26, 2026: free pick needs 52%+ win probability and 3 to 10% edge. Among those we take the highest model win probability, not the biggest edge — on our own graded history, the biggest edges were the worst plays.
Hot runs & streaks
Built from every graded full card pick (up to 5 a day). Updates when games go final. Public Pick of the Day streaks are separate.
Best days (4+ wins on card)
- Aug 11
- Aug 9
- Jul 24
- Jul 22
- May 20
Best 7-day windows
- May 15 to May 21
- May 14 to May 20
- May 16 to May 22
| Date | Team | Opponent | Result | Units | Running total units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | L | -1.00u | -0.59u |
| 2026-09-22 | Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.85u | +0.41u |
| 2026-09-22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres | W | +0.83u | -0.44u |
| 2026-09-21 | Detroit Tigers | Washington Nationals | W | +0.66u | -1.27u |
| 2026-09-21 | Minnesota Twins | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -1.93u |
| 2026-09-21 | Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +0.89u | -0.93u |
| 2026-09-20 | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.65u | -1.82u |
| 2026-09-20 | New York Yankees | Arizona Diamondbacks | L | -1.00u | -2.47u |
| 2026-09-20 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Kansas City Royals | W | +1.02u | -1.47u |
| 2026-09-19 | Milwaukee Brewers | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.76u | -2.49u |
| 2026-09-19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.89u | -3.25u |
| 2026-09-19 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -4.14u |
| 2026-09-19 | Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | W | +1.00u | -3.14u |
| 2026-09-19 | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.72u | -4.14u |
| 2026-09-18 | Milwaukee Brewers | Baltimore Orioles | W | +0.72u | -4.87u |
| 2026-09-18 | Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | W | +0.86u | -5.59u |
| 2026-09-18 | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.16u | -6.46u |
| 2026-09-18 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -7.62u |
| 2026-09-18 | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -6.62u |
| 2026-09-17 | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | W | +1.16u | -5.62u |
| 2026-09-16 | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -6.78u |
| 2026-09-16 | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +0.74u | -5.78u |
| 2026-09-16 | Detroit Tigers | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | -6.51u |
| 2026-09-16 | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | L | -1.00u | -5.51u |
| 2026-09-16 | Boston Red Sox | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -4.51u |
| 2026-09-15 | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | L | -1.00u | -3.51u |
| 2026-09-15 | Detroit Tigers | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.14u | -2.51u |
| 2026-09-14 | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | W | +0.74u | -3.65u |
| 2026-09-14 | Detroit Tigers | Toronto Blue Jays | W | +1.12u | -4.39u |
| 2026-09-13 | Tampa Bay Rays | Houston Astros | W | +0.74u | -5.51u |
| 2026-09-13 | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Angels | W | +0.85u | -6.24u |
| 2026-09-13 | Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | W | +1.10u | -7.09u |
| 2026-09-13 | Detroit Tigers | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.65u | -8.19u |
| 2026-09-12 | Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +0.85u | -8.84u |
| 2026-09-12 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.53u | -9.69u |
| 2026-09-12 | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | W | +0.82u | -10.21u |
| 2026-09-12 | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Angels | W | +0.86u | -11.03u |
| 2026-09-11 | New York Yankees | New York Mets | W | +0.72u | -11.89u |
| 2026-09-10 | Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -12.62u |
| 2026-09-09 | Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -11.62u |
| 2026-09-09 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -10.62u |
| 2026-09-08 | Cleveland Guardians | Baltimore Orioles | W | +1.10u | -9.62u |
| 2026-09-08 | St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -10.72u |
| 2026-09-08 | Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | W | +1.20u | -9.72u |
| 2026-09-08 | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | -10.92u |
| 2026-09-07 | Miami Marlins | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | -9.92u |
| 2026-09-07 | Cleveland Guardians | Baltimore Orioles | L | -1.00u | -8.92u |
| 2026-09-07 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.94u | -7.92u |
| 2026-09-07 | St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -8.86u |
| 2026-09-07 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.63u | -7.86u |
| 2026-09-06 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -8.49u |
| 2026-09-06 | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres | L | -1.00u | -7.49u |
| 2026-09-06 | Tampa Bay Rays | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -6.49u |
| 2026-09-05 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -5.49u |
| 2026-09-05 | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres | W | +0.98u | -4.49u |
| 2026-09-05 | Tampa Bay Rays | Texas Rangers | W | +0.93u | -5.47u |
| 2026-09-05 | St. Louis Cardinals | Colorado Rockies | L | -1.00u | -6.40u |
| 2026-09-04 | Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies | W | +0.96u | -5.40u |
| 2026-09-04 | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | W | +0.62u | -6.36u |
| 2026-09-04 | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | W | +0.85u | -6.98u |
| 2026-09-04 | Toronto Blue Jays | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.99u | -7.83u |
| 2026-09-04 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | -8.82u |
| 2026-09-03 | Cleveland Guardians | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | -7.82u |
| 2026-09-03 | Miami Marlins | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -6.82u |
| 2026-09-02 | Miami Marlins | Kansas City Royals | W | +0.96u | -5.82u |
| 2026-09-02 | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | -6.78u |
| 2026-09-02 | Cleveland Guardians | Toronto Blue Jays | L | -1.00u | -5.78u |
| 2026-09-02 | Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -4.78u |
| 2026-09-01 | Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | W | +1.06u | -3.78u |
| 2026-09-01 | Miami Marlins | Kansas City Royals | W | +1.00u | -4.84u |
| 2026-09-01 | Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -5.84u |
| 2026-09-01 | Tampa Bay Rays | New York Mets | W | +0.82u | -4.84u |
| 2026-08-31 | Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | L | -1.00u | -5.66u |
| 2026-08-31 | New York Yankees | Los Angeles Angels | L | -1.00u | -4.66u |
| 2026-08-31 | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros | L | -1.00u | -3.66u |
| 2026-08-31 | Detroit Tigers | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -2.66u |
| 2026-08-31 | Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -1.66u |
| 2026-08-30 | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | W | +1.04u | -0.66u |
| 2026-08-30 | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | L | -1.00u | -1.70u |
| 2026-08-30 | Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | W | +1.22u | -0.70u |
| 2026-08-30 | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | L | -1.00u | -1.92u |
| 2026-08-30 | Milwaukee Brewers | Texas Rangers | L | -1.00u | -0.92u |
| 2026-08-29 | Houston Astros | New York Mets | L | -1.00u | +0.08u |
| 2026-08-29 | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | W | +1.06u | +1.08u |
| 2026-08-29 | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | +0.02u |
| 2026-08-29 | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | W | +1.02u | +1.02u |
| 2026-08-29 | Milwaukee Brewers | Texas Rangers | W | +0.64u | +0.00u |
| 2026-08-28 | Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -0.64u |
| 2026-08-28 | Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | W | +1.00u | +0.36u |
| 2026-08-27 | St. Louis Cardinals | Baltimore Orioles | W | +1.06u | -0.64u |
| 2026-08-27 | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | L | -1.00u | -1.70u |
| 2026-08-27 | Toronto Blue Jays | Kansas City Royals | L | -1.00u | -0.70u |
| 2026-08-27 | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies | W | +0.83u | +0.30u |
| 2026-08-26 | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | W | +0.67u | -0.53u |
| 2026-08-26 | New York Yankees | Houston Astros | W | +0.74u | -1.20u |
| 2026-08-26 | Tampa Bay Rays | Detroit Tigers | W | +1.06u | -1.94u |
| 2026-08-26 | Chicago Cubs | Arizona Diamondbacks | L | -1.00u | -3.00u |
| 2026-08-26 | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies | L | -1.00u | -2.00u |
| 2026-08-24 | Philadelphia Phillies | Seattle Mariners | L | -1.00u | -1.00u |